In 2021, the EU imported 88% of the gas it consumed, with Russia alone covering 43% of that. Four years later, that figure has collapsed by 76%. On paper, Europe won its bet: it weaned itself off Russian gas faster than almost anyone thought possible.

But that success raises a question few are willing to ask out loud: has Europe truly regained its energy sovereignty — or has it simply changed masters?

A victory with a price tag — and not just a financial one
Behind the reassuring curves lies a fundamentally different system: more flexible, but also more exposed to forces Europe no longer controls. LNG cargoes originally bound for Europe suddenly rerouted elsewhere. Crises thousands of kilometers away landing directly on European households’ and industries’ energy bills. A continent that has, almost unwittingly, become the buyer driving up prices for everyone.

A dilemma every country is solving its own way
Germany, France, Spain, Poland, Romania: each has made radically different choices in the face of the same constraint. Some have bet on infrastructure, others on domestic production, and some quietly continue to rely on Russian gas. This fragmentation raises a central question for the continent’s future — one our study addresses with concrete answers.

What the Arthur Hunt Strategy study reveals
Europe’s Gas Dilemma unpacks the mechanics of this transformation in depth, quantifies the real costs of the shift to LNG, assesses the feasibility of every lever available to phase out Russian gas, and provides a country-by-country strategic outlook.
Essential reading for anyone who needs to anticipate the next moves in Europe’s gas market — whether for industrial strategy, investment decisions, or energy policy.

Want to receive the full study? Contact-us.

A 31% increase in fertilizer price over the past year. A projected shortage of ammonia of 6.8 million tons by 2029. Half of the world’s food production depending on it. The fertilizer market, long overshadowed by bigger geopolitical stories, has become one of the decade’s defining strategic issues. Arthur Hunt Strategy releases a new study breaking down the structural tensions reshaping this market.

A market under chronic pressure

The picture is stark: fertilizer demand keeps rising, driven by global population growth (nearly 9.7 billion people expected by 2050), soil degradation, shifting diets, and new industrial uses — lithium iron phosphate batteries chief among them.

Supply, meanwhile, remains rigid. Building an ammonia or urea production unit takes 4 to 7 years and billions of dollars in investment. The result: an estimated ammonia shortfall of 6.8 million tonnes a year by 2029 (excluding China).

Geopolitics at the table

The crisis that erupted in the Middle East in late February 2026 was a sharp reminder of the market’s fragility: nitrogen fertilizer prices jumped 31% year-on-year, and urea prices rose 43% in just three months. The geographic concentration of production — Russia, Qatar, and Iran for urea and ammonia; Morocco for phosphate; Canada for potash — exposes the entire global supply chain to political decisions and regional tensions, particularly around strategic chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz or the Suez Canal.

Three levers reshaping the market

Facing this structural instability, the study identifies three transformation dynamics at work:

– Regionalization of supply chains, driven by emerging production hubs (Nigeria, Mauritania) and by the European fertilizer plan announced in May 2026, which promotes organic and bio-based fertilizers produced in Europe.

– Agronomic efficiency, through the rise of biostimulants, biofertilizers, biocontrol products, and precision agriculture — while today only 20% of farmers worldwide use these solutions.

– Decarbonization of the sector, via green and blue ammonia, still marginal but growing, as fertilizers account for roughly 5% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

An issue that extends beyond agriculture

The consequences don’t stop at the farm gate: the World Bank estimates that a doubling of fertilizer prices could push food prices up by 10 to 20%. With only 40 to 60% of applied nitrogen actually absorbed by crops today, optimizing existing usage stands out as an immediate performance lever — alongside the long-term investments needed in new capacity.

Players who manage to produce more — or as much — with fewer inputs will hold a triple advantage: economic, environmental, and sovereign, in a market set to remain volatile for years to come.

Would you like to receive the full study by email ? Contact-us.