In 2021, the EU imported 88% of the gas it consumed, with Russia alone covering 43% of that. Four years later, that figure has collapsed by 76%. On paper, Europe won its bet: it weaned itself off Russian gas faster than almost anyone thought possible.

But that success raises a question few are willing to ask out loud: has Europe truly regained its energy sovereignty — or has it simply changed masters?

A victory with a price tag — and not just a financial one
Behind the reassuring curves lies a fundamentally different system: more flexible, but also more exposed to forces Europe no longer controls. LNG cargoes originally bound for Europe suddenly rerouted elsewhere. Crises thousands of kilometers away landing directly on European households’ and industries’ energy bills. A continent that has, almost unwittingly, become the buyer driving up prices for everyone.

A dilemma every country is solving its own way
Germany, France, Spain, Poland, Romania: each has made radically different choices in the face of the same constraint. Some have bet on infrastructure, others on domestic production, and some quietly continue to rely on Russian gas. This fragmentation raises a central question for the continent’s future — one our study addresses with concrete answers.

What the Arthur Hunt Strategy study reveals
Europe’s Gas Dilemma unpacks the mechanics of this transformation in depth, quantifies the real costs of the shift to LNG, assesses the feasibility of every lever available to phase out Russian gas, and provides a country-by-country strategic outlook.
Essential reading for anyone who needs to anticipate the next moves in Europe’s gas market — whether for industrial strategy, investment decisions, or energy policy.

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A 31% increase in fertilizer price over the past year. A projected shortage of ammonia of 6.8 million tons by 2029. Half of the world’s food production depending on it. The fertilizer market, long overshadowed by bigger geopolitical stories, has become one of the decade’s defining strategic issues. Arthur Hunt Strategy releases a new study breaking down the structural tensions reshaping this market.

A market under chronic pressure

The picture is stark: fertilizer demand keeps rising, driven by global population growth (nearly 9.7 billion people expected by 2050), soil degradation, shifting diets, and new industrial uses — lithium iron phosphate batteries chief among them.

Supply, meanwhile, remains rigid. Building an ammonia or urea production unit takes 4 to 7 years and billions of dollars in investment. The result: an estimated ammonia shortfall of 6.8 million tonnes a year by 2029 (excluding China).

Geopolitics at the table

The crisis that erupted in the Middle East in late February 2026 was a sharp reminder of the market’s fragility: nitrogen fertilizer prices jumped 31% year-on-year, and urea prices rose 43% in just three months. The geographic concentration of production — Russia, Qatar, and Iran for urea and ammonia; Morocco for phosphate; Canada for potash — exposes the entire global supply chain to political decisions and regional tensions, particularly around strategic chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz or the Suez Canal.

Three levers reshaping the market

Facing this structural instability, the study identifies three transformation dynamics at work:

– Regionalization of supply chains, driven by emerging production hubs (Nigeria, Mauritania) and by the European fertilizer plan announced in May 2026, which promotes organic and bio-based fertilizers produced in Europe.

– Agronomic efficiency, through the rise of biostimulants, biofertilizers, biocontrol products, and precision agriculture — while today only 20% of farmers worldwide use these solutions.

– Decarbonization of the sector, via green and blue ammonia, still marginal but growing, as fertilizers account for roughly 5% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

An issue that extends beyond agriculture

The consequences don’t stop at the farm gate: the World Bank estimates that a doubling of fertilizer prices could push food prices up by 10 to 20%. With only 40 to 60% of applied nitrogen actually absorbed by crops today, optimizing existing usage stands out as an immediate performance lever — alongside the long-term investments needed in new capacity.

Players who manage to produce more — or as much — with fewer inputs will hold a triple advantage: economic, environmental, and sovereign, in a market set to remain volatile for years to come.

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Last Wednesday, the Arthur Hunt Romania team gathered with clients, partners, and friends at Superbrain — CEO Clubs I Owners Club I Executive Club — to mark a meaningful milestone: 20 years of presence in Romania.

It was an evening to celebrate, but more than that, it was an evening to look forward.

Two Decades of Trust

Twenty years ago, Arthur Hunt set out to build a bridge between talent and organizations in Romania, helping companies find the right people and helping people find the right opportunities. Two decades later, that foundation of trust, expertise, and long-term relationships has become the platform for something bigger.

After 20 years of building that trust, we now have the courage to transform our business and broaden our impact. What started as a bridge in talent and HR is becoming a stronger platform for strategy consulting — helping clients navigate complexity, change, and growth with even greater confidence.

A Storm Outside, a Milestone Inside

Fittingly, the evening unfolded against the backdrop of a real storm outside. It turned out to be a fitting metaphor: progress is rarely made in calm conditions. It takes resilience, clarity, and teamwork to move forward, and that is exactly what this milestone represents for the Arthur Hunt Romania team.

Thank You to Those Who Made It Possible

This evolution would not have been possible without the people who have shaped the journey along the way:

• Our Group Founders Charles-Henri de Beauvoir, Didier Dreyfous-Ducas, and Axel Parkhouse
• Our CEO Olivier Perrin
• Our Senior Advisor Adela Jansen, Ciprian Lăduncă et Adrian Sandu
• The entire Arthur Hunt Romania team, led by Sorin Roibu (Executive Search), Alina Sirbu (HR consulting), Tudor Montescu (Strategy & business transformation), for the commitment, professionalism, and energy they bring every day.

What Comes Next

To our clients, partners, and future clients: if you are looking for a team that combines long-term experience with the ambition to help shape what comes next, we would be glad to build that future together.

Here’s to the next chapter.

Arthur Hunt Romania is part of Arthur Hunt Group, a management and HR consulting firm with over 30 years of history across multiple international offices.